Monday, March 23, 2026

Ms. Sarah Harrison

Sarah Harrison, Deputy Minister of the Environment, Conservation and Parks. Chair and members, good afternoon and thank you for the opportunity to appear today before the Standing Committee on Public Accounts. The Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks, or MECP for short, is committed to transparency and accountability to the people of Ontario as we work to deliver on our vision of an Ontario with clean and safe air, land and water that leads to healthier communities and economic prosperity. I’m happy to address the Auditor General’s recommendations in the 2025 Report on Progress to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, because the effort to reduce GHGs is a shared responsibility across government. I’m joined today by my counterparts at the Ministries of Transportation, Energy and Mines and Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness. I’m also joined by my colleagues from MECP, who will help answer any questions that you may have. Ontario’s climate change policies and programs are working to reduce and prevent greenhouse gas emissions and increase resilience to the impacts of a changing climate, and we have made significant progress. Since 2005, our reductions of 43.7 megatonnes of GHGs have surpassed those of any other province or territory. That’s a reduction by Ontario of 21.6%, with Canada’s overall reduction at 8.5%. It’s fair to say, then, that we are leaders in GHG reductions in Canada. While Ontario makes up about 39% of Canada’s population and GDP, our emissions in 2023 accounted for only 23% of Canada’s total emissions. We have achieved those reductions while also growing the economy over the same time frame, with Ontario’s real GDP growing by 34%. I’d now like to briefly respond to each of the Auditor General’s recommendations. The auditor’s first recommendation was, “In accordance with the act’s requirement to set targets,” the auditor recommends “that MECP propose additional targets for adoption by the province that provide a goal for continued GHG emissions reductions beyond 2030.” The ministry does not support the recommendation. The global economy is vastly different today than it was just a year ago, with the uncertainty and upheaval caused by President Trump’s tariffs. This has meant that the government must focus on protecting the province by creating a more competitive, resilient and self-reliant economy. Ontario’s decision to amend the Cap and Trade Cancellation Act related to this recommendation, as well as recommendations 2 and 3, is about ensuring that climate policy remains effective, flexible and aligned with the province’s broader goals. Ontario remains committed to long-term decarbonization, and this ministry will continue to evaluate, consider and advise on approaches to reducing GHG emissions beyond 2030. The second recommendation of the auditor was to: “—prepare and consult … on an updated climate change plan that outlines … plans to meet … current, and any future, targets to reduce GHG emissions; “—following consultation, publish an approved, finalized climate change plan; and “—regularly review and update the plan to … reflect any changes to planned initiatives….” The ministry does not support the recommendation. Due to the current global economic situation, the province cannot strictly adhere to a path or actions that do not account for current, future and unknown economic opportunities and challenges facing Ontario—including those related to the province’s long-term decarbonization objectives. Ontario will remain committed to its adaptable and agile approach that is responsive to the opportunities, needs and circumstances of Ontario’s economy and job creators. This ministry remains committed to adhering to public consultation requirements and will remain transparent in respect of its approach to fighting climate change. The auditor’s third recommendation is MECP should “report annually to the public on progress made to reduce GHG emissions in Ontario....” This would include “updates on the implementation of initiatives taken to reduce GHG emissions and the status of Ontario’s GHG emissions.” The ministry does not support this recommendation and remains committed to transparency in its approach to fighting climate change. Annual public information on Ontario’s progress in reducing emissions is already available through the national inventory report and emissions projections, which are published yearly by the federal government. And finally, the fourth recommendation of the auditor was that “MECP request yearly updates from each body responsible for any federal or provincial initiative included in a GHG emissions projection to confirm the validity and accuracy of all policy assumptions whenever making a new projection.” The ministry supports the recommendation. To this end, MECP will continue to employ best practices in its GHG emissions projection analysis. It will evaluate and update GHG emissions projections based on the most recent data and information available, informed by internal and external experts. MECP already utilizes the Navius Research Inc.’s peer-reviewed energy economy macroeconomic model called gTech and follows best practices to regularly update the model and reflect the latest emission data, economic trends and policy developments. We also review new MECP initiatives to update projections on at least an annual basis, as well as for policies, commitments announced in Ontario and federal budgets, or updates to the federal emissions reduction plan. To summarize, Ontario will continue to take an adaptable and agile approach to reducing GHGs that is responsive to the needs of our economy. The Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks will continue to focus on achieving our climate change objectives while we prioritize the needs arising out of the economic uncertainty facing the province. As we work on long-term decarbonization, we will continue to evaluate and consider best approaches reducing GHGs beyond 2030. I’d like to thank the committee for their time and now pass it to my colleague, Deputy Minister Susanna Laaksonen-Craig, to explain how the Ministry of Energy and Mines is reducing GHG emissions in Ontario.

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Ms. Susanna Laaksonen-Craig

My name is Susanna Laaksonen-Craig. I’m the Deputy Minister of Energy and Mines. It is my pleasure to appear before this committee in response to the Auditor General’s Report on Progress to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Ontario. Regarding GHGs, Ontario has one of the cleanest electricity grids in the world. In the 2024 report entitled Powering Ontario’s Growth, we highlighted this fact. The carbon intensity of electricity in Ontario is seven times lower than in New York state and 17 times lower than in Michigan. We are able to provide reliable and affordable electricity today, while we are decades ahead of our neighbours on decarbonization. This is largely because nuclear and hydroelectric power make up the bulk of our electricity system, and both are virtually emissions-free. Nuclear power currently provides around 50% of Ontario’s energy supply and was a key reason the province was able to eliminate coal-fired electricity generation more than a decade ago—an achievement that still stands as the single-largest greenhouse gas reduction on the continent. Today, Ontario’s green electricity makes up 21% of end-use energy consumption, accounting for just 4.3% of the province’s total emissions. As the auditor’s report acknowledges, that’s lower than any other sector, including transportation, industry buildings, agriculture or waste. As more homes and businesses turn to electrification, we expect the percentage of electricity to grow steadily in terms of end-use energy consumption. Last year, the Ontario government released Energy for Generations. This plan highlights numerous ways we will continue to have a low-carbon electricity system. New and refurbished nuclear generation and hydroelectric facilities will continue to be the backbone of our system. Competitive energy procurements will bring more renewable energy and battery storage to the mix. We have a new 12-year energy-efficiency framework that includes new programs for homes and businesses, and we are building out our transmission system to connect power to more end-users. We have just completed the Darlington nuclear refurbishment and the Bruce refurbishment is well under way. Both these projects are proving that we can manage nuclear projects on time and on budget, and we will start executing the Pickering refurbishment in early 2027. As refurbishments are completed and new nuclear generation comes online, starting with four small modular reactors in Darlington in 2030 to 2035, emissions from electricity generation are expected to decline significantly. I also want to stress that we have many options for procuring more power over this time if we see any gap emerging between demand and supply. We are about to announce the results of the first window of the second long-term competitive energy and capacity procurement known as LT2. More of these procurements are scheduled in the near future. The Independent Electricity System Operator also conducts annual capacity auctions to balance the system at the best possible price. This highlights one of the great strengths of Ontario’s electricity system: We are not beholden to any one technology. We have a diverse supply mix and the ability to procure power in many different ways.

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

Ten minutes remaining.

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Ms. Susanna Laaksonen-Craig

Thanks to these investments in construction, refurbishment and procurements, our Energy for Generations plan includes forecasts that show a sharp decline in the mid-2030s as new supply comes online. GHG emissions then decline to almost zero in the late 2040s. In closing, I would like to reinforce some key points. The electricity sector is the least-emitting sector of those tracked in this report. Electricity enables other sectors to reduce their own emissions. And while we do have a short-term increase in emissions while nuclear refurbishments and construction are under way, we have a clear and public path to nearly zero emissions from the sector before 2025.

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Ms. Tamara Gilbert

Good afternoon. Tamara Gilbert, assistant deputy minister of the Ministry of Transportation’s integrated policy and planning division. I appreciate the opportunity to appear before the Standing Committee on Public Accounts on behalf of the Ministry of Transportation, or MTO. MTO plays a crucial role in Ontario’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We take this responsibility seriously. Our ministry is carrying out the largest transit expansion in North America and the largest subway expansion in Canadian history. These projects will lower the number of vehicles on Ontario’s roads and reduce GHG emissions. We’re also helping municipalities transition to hybrid and electric buses for their transit fleets, and we’re also encouraging drivers to switch to electric vehicles and embracing sustainable construction practices and highway projects across the province. Here in Toronto, the Finch West LRT and the Line 5 Eglinton, also known as the Eglinton Crosstown, are now open to the public. These rapid transit lines are making life easier for thousands of daily commuters and substantially reducing our emissions. By 2027, the Finch West LRT is estimated to reduce GHG emissions by 17,000 tonnes annually, and Line 5 Eglinton is expected to reduce annual GHG emissions by 12,000 tonnes. Those numbers are just the start. Priority transit projects are currently under way. There’s a number of additional projects currently under way, including the Ontario Line, Scarborough subway extension, Yonge North subway extension, Eglinton Crosstown West extension and the Hazel McCallion Line. Collectively, these projects are expected to reduce GHG emissions by an estimated 39,000 tonnes each year. There’s also the progress on the province’s GO expansion program, which will bring faster and more frequent service to GO Transit’s busiest rail routes and is expected to take more than 145,000 cars off the road each day and cut emissions by 480,000 tonnes annually. MTO has also helped a number of municipal transit agencies across the province transition to hybrid and electric buses through our contributions to the public transit stream of the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program. This provincial funding has gone towards purchasing low- and zero-emission transit vehicles in Oakville, Waterloo, Brampton, North Bay and other municipalities. Our ministry is also helping Ontario drivers make the switch to electric vehicles. Through our EV chargeON program, MTO is increasing the number of public EV charging stations across the province. This will reduce range anxiety, fill gaps in underserved areas and make charging infrastructure more accessible and affordable. We continually strive to lessen our carbon footprint when it comes to highway construction projects. MTO’s GreenPave rating system encourages the use of recycled materials, alternate fuels and shorter hauling distances at job sites. Up to 20% of the aggregates we use for highway projects are also recycled. Our use of warm-mix asphalt has the potential to lower asphalt plant emissions by between 15% and 20% and can reduce fuel consumption by between 20% and 35%. As our ministry continues to deliver these and other priorities Ontarians depend on, we remain committed to lowering our emissions and prioritizing sustainability. With that said, I’ll turn it over to John Kelly, deputy of agriculture, food and agribusiness. Thank you so much.

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Mr. John Kelly

Thank you. I’m John Kelly, deputy minister for the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Agribusiness. Thank you to the committee members for inviting me today. I appreciate the opportunity to be able to talk about our ministry’s efforts regarding environmental stewardship and stewardship activities that Ontario supports in greenhouse gas reductions. I’d also like to thank Deputy Harrison for her ministry’s leadership on this important work. Environmental stewardship is a significant priority for Ontario farmers and agribusinesses. OMAFA supports stewardship initiatives that help farmers and agribusinesses adapt to a changing climate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While many of these programs are voluntary, in many cases, sustainable practices, in addition to being beneficial to the environment, also have economic benefits to farmers. This supports broad interest and uptake of our stewardship programs. The sector benefits from the Sustainable Canadian Agriculture Partnership, or SCAP for short, which is a five-year, federal-provincial-territorial investment to strengthen the sector’s competitiveness, innovation and resiliency. The current agreement, in place from 2023 to 2028, has identified tackling climate change and environmental protection as one of five priority areas. By the end of the current agreement, the federal-provincial-territorial partners have agreed to contribute towards reducing Canada’s greenhouse emissions by three to five megatonnes. In Ontario alone, a total of $65.8 million in combined provincial and federal SCAP funding is earmarked to be spent on activities that can reduce emissions or sequester carbon. SCAP funding currently supports multiple programs and initiatives that are directly helping Ontario farmers reduce emissions and sequester carbon, with more than 1,500 projects approved to date. One great example is the Resilient Agriculture Landscape Program, or RALP. This program supports farmers in undertaking projects that science and research have shown to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or sequester carbon, like reducing tillage and planting trees. The short- and long-term economic benefits that come from sustainable practices, like reduced input costs and increased productivity, profitability and resiliency, incentivize uptake of these and other voluntary programs. The ministry also provides environmental stewardship education and outreach to farmers and to agribusinesses. This ranges from directly connecting with farmers by attending farm shows and supporting workshops across Ontario to providing free online decision-making tools any farmer can access and use to help inform on-farm production decisions. Farmers can even get access to online greenhouse gas decision support tools. I would note that while OMAFA does not directly measure or report on greenhouse gas emissions, we do share program information with the federal government to support their responsibilities for national reporting on greenhouse gases. Once again, thanks for the opportunity to speak with you today. I’ll now turn it back to Deputy Harrison.

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

We’re just at about two minutes.

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

Chair, thank you for the time. I think we’ve said our comments.

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

Okay. Thank you. This week, we will proceed in the following rotation: 20 minutes to the third party member, 20 minutes to the official opposition, 20 minutes to the government. And we will follow this rotation for two rounds. We will now begin with MPP Fairclough.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Thank you to all four of you for coming today and presenting to us. I’ll be sharing my time with my colleague MPP McMahon over the course of both of the sessions. I do want to start at a high level. When I read this report, this is how I would summarize it: Ontario was on a good trajectory to reduce our emissions. Before 2018, one of the most important decisions that we made was to eliminate coal plants, and that has been the single-largest reduction—I think somebody said 17%—that we’ve seen. Then we enter into 2018, and basically the report says that we eliminated a lot of the policies that were actually helping to contribute to that curve around reduction. We had a draft plan for many years, but it never got finalized. And now it’s clear that as a province, we won’t set a clear target. And then we actually repealed the legislation that required us to have targets or a plan. That’s how I read the Auditor General’s report. I find it interesting—because you’ve given some examples of things that you think are contributing well to this. What I want to understand is, really, why have all the recommendations of the Auditor General been rejected? Presumably, everybody in this room cares about the future of our planet. I’ve got teenage boys; I think we all get motivated to make sure there’s a strong future for them. I think all of us, in our communities, say we see more forest fires or we see more floods or we see the financial impact for families and our communities of insurance costs etc. So I think everybody is motivated. So what is the explanation for why the draft plan was never finalized? And was it really the direction of the government to not have a plan?

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

Thank you, member, for the question. I’m happy to begin this. There was quite a lot wrapped into your question. I would say that what you have seen is the Ministry of the Environment, along with colleague ministries, make a number of investments in Ontario’s economy that have led to the reduction that we’ve seen in GHG reductions, and the government is proud of that reduction. But the government is not prepared at this point to commit to a climate plan that would preclude us from having the agility that we are looking for and the adaptability that we’re looking for with so many of the uncertainties that are ahead. The government remains committed, the ministry remains committed to working with our partners, but at this point, having a plan that prescribes targets or prescribes the path to it actually is not helpful because it means that we’re making decisions about uncertainties that we can’t be clear about now. I think it’s more transparent, I think it’s more flexible to report on our reductions. We do that annually through the federal report and continue to make the policy commitments and the investments in the economy that we have. A number of my colleagues, I’m sure, would like to contribute to that, to speak even more in detail about some of the investments that we’ve seen on the ground. But the government is not committed at this time to a climate change plan.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

That’s clear, then. It was really their choice to not put a plan in place. You said in your opening as well—again, at a high level—you’re going to continue to monitor and report, but really have no actions tied to what trends we might be seeing around emissions in that time. Is that a fair statement? So we’re going to report for the sake of reporting, but we’re not going to have that reporting drive any action in this area?

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

I’ll begin, and maybe I’ll ask my colleague. The government is not making a presumption that the report has to drive the activities and that there are a number of decisions that are made on a responsive basis to changes that weren’t anticipated, in some cases. And what we’re seeing, too, are some emerging economic changes. The plan can’t reasonably foresee that, but the decisions that are made in real time are more responsive to it. I’ll ask my colleague if he would like to contribute.

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Mr. Alex Wood

Sure. Alex Wood, I’m the assistant deputy minister for the climate change and resiliency division in the Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks.

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

You need to take an oath. Stop the time.

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The Clerk of the Committee (Ms. Thushitha Kobikrishna)

Alex Wood, do you solemnly affirm that the evidence you shall give to this committee touching the subject of the present inquiry shall be the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

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Mr. Alex Wood

I do.

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The Clerk of the Committee (Ms. Thushitha Kobikrishna)

Thank you.

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Mr. Alex Wood

Maybe to pick up on a couple of points that you’ve made, I think it’s important to distinguish between the existing plan and a new plan. The deputy’s earlier answer, I think, is in relation to government decision-making around a future plan, given the uncertain context that we find ourselves in. But we continue to deliver on the existing plan, and a lot of the measures—for my ministry to track and my division to deliver on—are tied to that 2018 plan, which continues to be the plan that we deliver on. Insofar as it comes to reporting progress on that, as part of the answer that was provided earlier in the deputy’s introductory remarks, we are part of an exercise that is national in scope. The federal government issues its national inventory report every year that reports on the state of emissions in the country, but also breaks down provincially what those emissions look like. And so our reporting is usually a reflection of what the federal exercise has generated. All of the numbers that you have seen described in terms of our reductions—absolute reductions, percentage reductions—are a reflection of those federal numbers, that NIR. That process will continue. We will have a new NIR at some point this year showing Ontario’s emissions, and that’s the reporting framework that we’ll continue to use.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

But it is fair to say that the government basically has made a choice, though, not to have any targets—certainly not targets beyond 2030. They’ve repealed the legislation that requires them to have a plan and to set those targets, which some would argue maybe signals the level of priority that this has for them as a government.

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Mr. Alex Wood

It’s not really my job to argue that, one way or another.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Yes, but it is true, right, that this is what has happened? We’ve cancelled the legislation that would actually create responsibility for the government to be clear on what their ongoing targets will be. Many other provinces have targets that go out to 2040—that was in the report as well. My biggest concern, I think, with this whole report and the response to it is that the government doesn’t seem to have any commitment, actually, to making sure that we’re going to continue to reach those targets.

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Mr. Alex Wood

I would just point to the delivery of the existing programs that we have in place. One of the programs my division manages—you mentioned performance programs—so this is an industrial carbon pricing program that we have in place. It continues to do some heavy lifting when it comes to the reduction of emissions from the industrial sector, one of the important emission sources in the province. It is a program that has been identified by independent entities, like the Canadian Climate Institute, as probably the most important instrument in use in Canada, across Canada—whether provincially or federally—to reduce emissions. The government is committed to that program and continues to deliver on that program. The deputy and some of the other deputies spoke to some of the existing initiatives and investments that the government continues to implement.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Given the government has moved towards, though, the elimination of GHG emission targets and reporting altogether, was that recommendation put forward to them by the public sector, to actually remove that requirement?

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

Member, we’re not at liberty to speak to the advice that we give the minister in making cabinet-related decisions, but we understood that the minister was looking to explore a number of considerations, and that was among information that was provided by the public service.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

That was among the options that were given, to stop—okay. Was there a scientific rationale behind the decision to not do it, to not continue to set targets.

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

Just over 10 minutes remaining.

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Mr. Alex Wood

I guess I would point out, to maybe quibble a bit, the fact that those particular sections of the act have been repealed does not mean the government cannot set targets for GHG reductions. It continues to be committed to the targets that it has already set for itself, and so that distinction is important to point out.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Okay. If it is possible, I would like to request any documentation the committee can get on what led to the decision to repeal the legislation and to no longer have targets in place. Can I make that request through the Chair?

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

I mean, the committee has to agree to it, but we can come back to that—

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Can you follow up on that?

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

—perhaps after, yes.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Okay. That’s great. And I guess I would just ask maybe the last question, and then I’m going to turn it to my colleague. Is it your perspective that in removing these targets, Ontario will be better equipped to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Do you think targets are useful to make sure that we keep our eye on that reduction?

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

I’ll begin by just saying that I don’t think the presence of targets predetermines whether or not emissions will be reduced. The government remains committed, the ministry is looking for opportunities through our partners, and in the presence or without the presence of targets, that remains the commitment of the government.

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Ms. Lee Fairclough

Okay. Thank you.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Thank you for coming in today and sharing your—what shall I say—I guess stance with us. So, first off, to Deputy Minister Sarah Harrison: You mentioned that Ontario is basically a leader in greenhouse gas reductions across Canada. That’s what I surmised. I wonder how much of that is attributed to the closure of the coal plants.

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Mr. Alex Wood

Yes. Well, as I think the deputy mentioned or others mentioned—maybe Deputy Laaksonen-Craig—Ontario has always been very public and proud about the substantial reductions that were achieved by the closure of the coal plants. The numbers around that are between 20 and 25 megatonnes of reductions. But right now, we’re at a total reduction for the province, since 2005, of 43 megatonnes. The basic math is maybe half of those reductions come from that single—

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Then why wouldn’t you want to report on that, and why—I think Sarah Harrison mentioned about being transparent. So do you not think that annual reporting on that to the public is transparent?

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Mr. Alex Wood

Reporting of what nature? One of the methodological nuances here in terms of reporting is those reductions are essentially counted in our baseline now, right? We don’t stack those on top of what emissions would have been if we hadn’t closed the coal plants. They are now part of the business as usual in Ontario, and so we measure against that.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Well, the Auditor General has asked you to report, and you have said no. Do you not think the public deserves to hear from you? I mean, how often is it that an Auditor General takes all the time to do a report and then not one of the recommendations, basically, are accepted?

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Mr. Alex Wood

Actually, one of them was accepted, out of—

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Okay, so one. My question is, specifically, Deputy Minister Sarah Harrison, do you believe in climate change?

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

I do.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Thank you. And do you believe there is a high cost to inaction and not acting on putting forth any climate action?

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Ms. Sarah Harrison

While I appreciate the nature of the member’s question, I think my personal beliefs and views are outside of the interests of the committee today, talking about the Auditor General’s responses and recommendations, and our responses to them. So, I respectfully think that I’d ask the Chair whether or not that question falls within the scope of today’s proceedings.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Well, the Financial Accountability Officer is very concerned about the high cost of inaction—and he has put a price tag on that—so I thought you might be as well. I’ll go on to Tamara Gilbert. Do you believe a strong investment in physically separated cycling infrastructure would lead to a reduction in greenhouse gases?

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Ms. Tamara Gilbert

Similar to Deputy Harrison, I think my personal views are not the matter of interest for the committee.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Okay. What is your ministry doing to that end, for cycling infrastructure? Because we actually know it reduces greenhouse gases. I didn’t hear that in your introduction.

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Ms. Tamara Gilbert

Thank you for the question. There is one statistic that I find very useful: As of 2025, approximately 2,100 kilometres of bike routes on provincial rights-of-way have been established since 2018, as one example of the ministry’s efforts in this regard.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Does that include the ones that have been ripped out?

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Ms. Tamara Gilbert

These are on provincial rights-of-way. I believe the member is referring to the dialogue with the city of Toronto over the revised approach to the bike lanes along Bloor, Avenue and Yonge. You might be familiar that there haven’t been any bike lanes which have been removed or ripped out per that exercise as of this time.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

As of yet, right. I love all the transit investment; it’s great. I’d like it to be quicker than 15 years, but hopefully it will going forward. Just wondering about last mile and first mile and what your ministry is doing.

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Ms. Tamara Gilbert

I appreciate the question. A couple of initiatives to highlight: You might have noticed the ministry’s recent announcement around a rideshare pilot framework for the north, for Northlander communities that will be connected through the ONTC train that is about to be re-established in operations. That’s an important first-mile/last-mile initiative. Currently, the ministry is undertaking very, very significant consultations to get advice around what should be in that rideshare pilot framework—which, again, the intention is to have that in place for the establishment of the Northlander train. That’s one initiative. I also point to the ministry’s very strong efforts around the One Fare program, which of course is intended to support integration of public transit across the number of municipal systems that feed into GO, just as an example.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Great. Anything pertaining to bike share around mobility hubs in urban centres or cycling infrastructure?

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Ms. Tamara Gilbert

The ministry, you might be aware, also has a number of pilots that take into account biking opportunities, but I might go back to my original response.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Okay. Thank you. Chair, how much time?

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

You have just over two minutes.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Susanna Laaksonen-Craig, you mentioned that the ministry is not beholden to any one energy source, essentially, and I just wondered what you’re doing to invest in renewables, and also for conservation, education and awareness campaigns.

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Ms. Susanna Laaksonen-Craig

Thank you for that question. At the high level reflected in my opening remarks, we, for example, are right now in the middle of a long-term second procurement through IESO, and that is a procurement that is looking at both a mix of different renewable energy sources, as well as, then, it can be storage capacity. We had a very successful procurement for our storage earlier through IESO, so there are a number of different ways at how ministry and government are looking at ensuring that we have that diverse mix of electricity. Through those competitive procurements, government is really looking at getting that affordable price, so that ratepayers can still continue to enjoy the affordable electricity while we have significant components of renewables, hydro and nuclear as part of that total mix, going forward. As I noted, all these procurements are going to continue to drive—whether it’s nuclear or renewables—the emissions on the electricity sector toward near zero by 2050.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Are you doing anything on—

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

Sorry, we’re out of time.

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Ms. Mary-Margaret McMahon

Okay.

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The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

Now we move to the official opposition. MPP Bell, you have 20 minutes.

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Ms. Jessica Bell

Thank you so much for coming in here today. Some of my questions are going to be fairly similar to the questions that were raised by the Liberal MPPs here. The first thing I do want to say is that when I read the Auditor General’s report on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, I read it with dismay and alarm. I read it with alarm because, based on all credible evidence, we’re on track toward a future where our living standards are lower, our life expectancy is shorter, our economy is struggling and we are inundated with more frequent extreme weather events: extreme wildfires, extreme heat events, extreme flooding, heavy rain. I think that this is our reality whether we like it or not. That’s what all the science is telling us. I also think, as government and as ministry officials, we have a responsibility to do our part to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prepare our government infrastructure, our economy, our social services, for extreme weather and a hotter climate. It’s our responsibility. We’re meant to think beyond two weeks. We’re meant to think five years, 10 years, 50 years ahead. When I read this report, it looks to me like the Conservatives have abandoned any pretense to insulate ourselves from climate change and its impact on our children and on future generations. It screams of this mentality of, “Let’s take what we can get now and leave the future to burn.” I also think that we have a responsibility and a moral obligation—I can imagine, as public servants, you share this responsibility—to do what we can to ensure that future generations have a quality of life that’s as good as ours. To do that I think it’s pretty safe to say that we need to respond to climate change with everything we’ve got. That means reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and also preparing our infrastructure and our economy and our society—our health care systems, our emergency responses—for extreme weather. It’s this thinking that is driving some of the questions that I have today. The first questions that I have are around the GHG emission calculations. When I read this report, it became pretty clear to me that the calculations that the ministries have used to assess what the emissions reductions are going to be—which is, quite frankly, wrong—the AG concluded that the government did not use sound evidence to assess emissions reductions. They gave quite a few examples. The big ones included assuming the full impact of federal programs, even though they’ve been scrapped; double-counting emissions reductions; and assuming that GHG emissions reductions from the farming sector are going down, but providing no explanation on why that assumption is justified. There were many examples throughout the report. My question to you is, why did the ministry release a report that did not accurately assess GHG emissions reductions. What happened?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

I’m going to focus my answer based on an assumption that it is largely about a recommendation for, in the AG’s report, having to do with how we conduct our analytical work, the tools that we use and the assumptions that we use. I want to distinguish here between what are essentially forecast versus reports that are backward-looking. As the deputy mentioned in her introductory remarks, we, as a matter of practice over the last six, seven years, have used essentially the best model in Canada to determine and forecast emissions from a number of inputs, and there are two things to be said there. One is that exercise simulates some kind of certainty around what emissions will be in the future. But any kind of practical examination of that and experience with that kind of exercise shows that it is a far from perfect exercise to try to estimate what emissions are going to be like in five years, 10 years—

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

All right. I’m going to take back my time. Straight up, the examples I gave were examples that you would expect an undergraduate to get right. For instance, you have instances where reductions were double counted. That is pretty common sense when you’re looking at doing an assessment of GHG emissions reductions. What I guess is that no effort was put into updating the plan, and it was just submitted to the Auditor General—that’s what I sense—and that it reflects a real lack of care about action on climate. So I’m going to ask the question again: Why was a report submitted that had such, quite frankly, gross inaccuracies for assessing climate reductions and the policies that were going to be used to achieve those climate reductions? What happened?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

I can tell you, the exercise of engaging with the AG’s office in terms of describing to them, working with them through the modelling platform that we have, explaining our use of assumptions—a very complicated math exists within those models. I would take issue with the idea that we were double-counting emissions because that is something that was identified in a previous AG report back in 2019, but that the ministry has taken great efforts at addressing through its modelling work ever since.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Okay. So I have another question.

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

Sure.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

I have many questions. I only get 40 minutes, so we will be following up with your ministry. The second question I have—and in some ways this is more important. There were some errors in the calculating of greenhouse gas emissions. Can this ministry confirm that in the draft reports you have written or in future reports that you might release, you will make a commitment to ensure these kinds of mistakes do not happen again? And when I’m talking about mistakes, I’m talking about factoring in the impact of a policy that has already been scrapped, or not engaging in double counting.

Official source

Ms. Sarah Harrison

Member, just for a matter of clarification—I don’t want to speak on behalf of the auditor, who I know is present here and would be happy to correct, but I think the auditor is being misquoted—not intentionally, member. But I think it’s not unimportant to note here that the auditor recognized that the emissions were mainly due to policy changes that happened after those projections were calculated and developed. So I think it’s not unimportant to talk about this as being also a connection back to sequencing. So recognizing your point, there was no deliberate effort on behalf of the ministry.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Just to clarify—I am taking back my time—my question is around what is this ministry going to do in the future to ensure that the plans that you release use accurate accounting? That’s my question: looking forward. We’re not going back now; we’re looking forward.

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

Right. I can categorically assert that we—as a matter of policy, as a matter of course, as a matter of practice—are in the business of constantly updating our model with the assumptions that come in to us. I will make the other point that many of those assumptions are not assumptions that we generate, as an example. We have to, in our model to forecast emissions in the province, have an estimate of what GDP growth is going to be in the province. We do not generate that GDP growth forecast; we rely on our colleagues in the Ministry of Finance to do so. There are any number of like assumptions that we use as a matter of course, and it is, again, a matter of practice in the ministry to update, on an annual basis, the model based on whatever new assumptions have come in. That includes any changes in policy, particularly federal policy.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

So I recall in the Auditor General’s report there is a draft report on calculated GHG emission reductions, 2025. Is that correct? There is a draft report—an internal draft report?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

Yes.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Great. What is the projected emissions reduction in that internal draft report?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

I’ll have to get back to you on that one—the exact number. Like I said, if we’re talking about a forecast here, there will be a number attached to it, but it will almost certainly have been—if I were to run that model for you again, it would end up at a different number. These things are constantly changing, especially in the current, very uncertain environment that we exist in. But I can get back to you with that number.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Thank you. I appreciate that. My request is that that draft report is released publicly. Can your ministry release that draft report?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

I’ll have to make sure that we’re talking about the same thing.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

We will definitely follow up.

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

Maybe we can get some clarity on exactly the product that you’re talking about.

Official source

The Chair (Mr. Tom Rakocevic)

Ten minutes remaining.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

My second questions are focused on just the overall plan. What we have heard from the Auditor General’s report and also from the presentations that you’ve given is that the government has made a decision to no longer have GHG emissions reductions targets post 2030, even though nearly every other province and territory has emissions reductions targets post 2030. My question to you is this—and it’s just straight up and it’s already been asked but it’s so important. This is probably the most important question that needs to be asked. Can this ministry develop and release a credible and accurate public plan to reduce GHG emissions to 30% below 2005 levels? Yes or no?

Official source

Ms. Sarah Harrison

Member, thank you again for the question. As we’ve answered previously, the ministry is in a position with so many uncertainties that you’re asking for something that we have only some ability to predict, and the prediction itself inherently leads to some inaccuracy. You’ve asked us both for a plan and a certainty of accuracy, which the ministry is not able to provide for you. The presence of a plan is not the sole determinant of whether the minister and the government of Ontario continue to make commitments towards climate change reduction and decarbonization, which the government has remained committed to, and you’ve seen a number of investments throughout the other ministries. Our ministry acts as a partner only in this respect. I think, maybe on an earlier point in your preamble, you talked about the importance of this, and I’d say that nothing is a better understanding of the importance of climate change than the evolution of how we do climate change planning in the government of Ontario. It’s not exclusively the domain of the MECP. It’s actually a responsibility of all our partner ministries, and adaptation and resiliency are inherent in all of the work that’s done on a policy basis.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

We’ll get to that. Help me out here. You agree that having a climate change plan is important, right?

Official source

Ms. Sarah Harrison

Member, I appreciate this, but my view on whether or not there’s a plan is outside of the scope of this discussion. The government is not committed to making a plan on climate change, respectful that that is a recommendation of the auditor but not a recommendation that the ministry is accepting.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

So just to be clear, the government is not committed to making a plan to address climate change. The government is not committed to doing that.

Official source

Ms. Sarah Harrison

I’m not predicting what the future intention of the government is. It’s causing me to speculate to do that, which is outside of my purview as a public servant. The government, at this time, has not asked for a climate change plan.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Well, that is a pity. I want to talk a little bit about the consequences of inaction. Has your ministry—or ministries—done an assessment on the social and economic cost of not having a comprehensive plan with clear greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets? Is there an internal assessment on the impact of not acting?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

What I’ll point to in answer to that is the exercise undertaken by the province to create a Provincial Climate Change Impact Assessment. That is a public document, a public plan, that was released two or three years ago now. It’s the first of its kind in Ontario, describing what the expected impacts of climate change—physical impacts largely—would be in Ontario. That plan does exist and it is, in fact, public.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Going into the specifics of that, talking about the consequences of extreme heat events, has the ministry—or ministries—done any assessment on the economic and social impact of extreme heat events, and if so, what have you found?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

On that front, I would point to essentially the work that my ministry does to take the expertise that we represent in terms of understanding what those impacts will look like and then working with our partner ministries on the implications of those findings, of those conclusions—

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

So you’ve done that work internally?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

We are continuing to work with some of our ministry colleagues where that work exists in terms of—

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

And what have you found in terms of economic cost and social costs? What have you found so far?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

I don’t think we have hard conclusions, hard numbers that we could point to at this point.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

All right. What we do know, though, is that heat events do and can cost a lot of money. To give you an example: The heat dome in BC was classified as the costliest disaster in BC’s history. It resulted in 600 people dying, and the Canadian Climate Institute estimates the cost of not responding to this extreme heat event cost BC about $12 billion a year. It’s a lot of money. The reason I’m raising this is because there are economic consequences to not having a plan, and that’s just one example. Have you got any financial estimate on what it would cost if we had a similar heat dome event here in Ontario?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

Not to my knowledge.

Official source

Ms. Jessica Bell

Okay. All right. Now I want to get into the impact of climate change on infrastructure. Institutions have had a look at assessing the impact of climate change on public infrastructure. We’re talking roads, the electricity grid, sewer systems, and whether they can withstand extreme heat and flooding, extreme rainfall, hurricanes and more. Assessments are showing that, quite frankly, we’re not prepared, our infrastructure is not ready, and we should be spending money to upgrade our infrastructure and get our infrastructure ready for more extreme weather events. My question is this: Have the ministries or government done any assessment on the impact of climate change on our infrastructure and the costs of upgrading our infrastructure or not upgrading our infrastructure when we’re looking at climate change? Have you done that kind of assessment?

Official source

Mr. Alex Wood

Our ministry has not, but the member opposite earlier mentioned some work by the Financial Accountability Officer and that exercise was looking at exactly that question.

Official source