PREDICT Act

Summary#

This bill adds a new subchapter to chapter 131 of title 5 of the U.S. Code. It defines "covered individuals" to include Members of Congress and their spouses or dependent children, congressional officers and employees, the President and Vice President, political appointees, senior executive and uniformed service officers, and judicial officers and employees. The bill forbids covered individuals from entering into or offering agreements, contracts, or transactions that depend on the occurrence, nonoccurrence, or extent of a specific political event (trading on prediction markets) while they are in federal service. The supervising ethics office must issue guidance on undefined terms. The bill creates penalties: a fee equal to ten percent of the value of the violating agreement and disgorgement of profits, with disgorged amounts payable to the Treasury. It also bans payment of those penalties from certain official allowances, campaign contributions, and other non-salary federal funds. Supervising ethics offices must publish each assessed fine, the reason for it, and the result on a public website.

What it means for you#

  • If you are a covered individual as defined in the bill, you may not enter into or offer to enter into prediction-market transactions tied to specific political events while in federal service.
  • The supervising ethics office for your office will provide guidance on any unclear terms.
  • Violations may lead to a 10% fee on the transaction value and the requirement to give up any profits from the transaction. Those fines will be publicly posted along with reasons and results.
  • If you are not a covered individual, the bill text does not create new restrictions for you.

Expenses#

  • The bill requires individuals who violate the rule to pay a fee equal to ten percent of the value of the violating agreement and to disgorge profits; disgorged funds are payable into the Treasury.
  • The bill prohibits using certain official allowances, campaign contributions, or other non-salary federal funds to pay those penalties.
  • No publicly available information on broader administration, enforcement, or implementation costs is included in the bill text or provided metadata.

Proponents' View#

No publicly available information.

Opponents' View#

No publicly available information.